Owners who are just now putting their homes on the market appear to be an optimistic bunch. Whether they are too hopeful remains to be seen, but the signs are pointing to a slowdown that could stop the march of ever-higher prices.

So far, the evidence of a slowdown is spotty at best. The market in northern Virginia remains in "hot-market territory," broker David Rathgeber tells me. And "there is no evidence" the hot southwest Florida market is changing, says agent Robert Goldman.

Goldman believes that for the market to shift, interest rates have to move higher, the inventory of houses for sale has to increase "on a massive level," and there has to be sudden drop in demand.

Check the interest rate box: Mortgage rates are now above 5% -- their highest point in a dozen years -- and they're still heading north. With 70% of all active mortgages at rates below 4%, potential move-up homeowners may be reluctant to give up their low-cost loans.

Check the demand box, too: According to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, buyers are becoming discouraged. The share of those who think they'll buy within the next three years fell for the first time since the inception of the New York Fed's annual Survey of Consumer Expectations. And the share of renters who think they're likely to own anytime in the future dropped below 50% for the first time, as well.

Even the new-home sector is seeing demand wane. Builders report that traffic has declined to its lowest point since last summer. And the share of adults planning to buy any house, new or existing, within the next year has fallen for three straight months, the National Association of Home Builders reports.

"The decline is evidence that the COVID-induced boost to housing demand is past its peak and is now softening," says the NAHB's Rose Quint.

Nationally, new listings slipped recently after starting to build back up. But they are expected to pick up again, with May normally being the peak month for sellers to list their places. According to new research from Clever Real Estate, a third of potential sellers, fearful of missing out on huge profits, have moved up their plans. And nearly half of them fully expect to sell for more than their asking price.

Forget the fact that almost 30% also expect to accept an offer within two weeks of listing. The question is: Have they already missed the boat? According to Redfin, 15% of sellers dropped their asking price during the four-week period ending May 1.

Maybe they were asking too much to begin with. But as Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, sees it, "Sellers should no longer expect the easy-profit gains ... as demand continues to subside."

Royal Hartwig of Royal Family Real Estate in Illinois agrees that demand is waning, but says it's "still a very strong market," with "maybe only 20-30 showings in a couple of days, as opposed to the 80-100 we had at this point last year."

Private mortgage insurers helped about 1.6 million families buy houses last year, even though those buyers didn't have the traditional 20% down payment lenders usually require.

They did so by guaranteeing that if a borrower defaulted, they would make good on the difference between what the borrowers put up at closing and 20% of their home's original value.

Of course, the ability to make a smaller down payment doesn't come cheaply, and it's the borrower who pays for the PMI. It adds roughly $135 to the monthly payment, on average, depending on how much the borrower puts down and the cost of the house. But if it makes the difference between buying or continuing to rent, many people choose the PMI option.

Owners paying for PMI coverage should remember that it can be canceled after a certain number of years or when the underlying property's loan-to-value ratio reaches 78%. You have to be current with a good payment history, and you have to initiate the process. And the way houses have appreciated over the last few years, says Marshall Gayden of Radian Guaranty, cancellation could be an option after just two or three years.

Not counting oligarchs, who tend to hide their investments, Russians have had little impact on the American residential real estate market over the last few years.

According to the National Association of Realtors, Russians accounted for less than 1% of all foreign purchases since 2015. On average, they paid $652,915 for their dwellings, versus the average of $480,695 paid by all foreign buyers. About half paid cash and use their property as their residence.

These folks probably don't have to worry about Uncle Sam seizing their properties, unless they used cash from illicit activities -- drug-running, for example, or stealing from their government -- to buy them. If they did, the feds are on the prowl.

While the Biden administration has made it a priority to identify these rogues, it appears that no real estate has been seized to date. But the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network has renewed and expanded its effort to find the scallywags by requiring title insurance companies to identify persons behind shell companies used in all-cash purchases of residential real estate.

Rising mortgage rates are sidelining many would-be homebuyers. But there are two ways to meet the challenge.

One option -- paying "points" and lowering the rate for the life of the loan -- is costly at first, but could be less expensive in the end. The other option -- adjustable-rate mortgages, whose rates start lower but can increase -- is cheaper at the start, but might ultimately cost more.

The key to both options is how long you plan to stay in the house -- or, alternatively, how long you have to hang on to the loan before it makes sense to refinance. As usual, you must do the math to determine which is best for your circumstances.

A point is 1% of the loan amount. So, if you have a $300,000 mortgage, a point is equal to $3,000. And each point paid buys a permanent reduction in your rate. Here's an example worked up by Patrick Casey of Fulton Mortgage in Chevy Chase, Maryland, based on his company's current rate sheet.

Say you're looking at a 30-year fixed-rate loan at 5.75% on that $300,000 house. If you paid a point upfront at closing, you could buy the rate down to 5.375%. That 0.375% difference would lower your monthly payment for principal and interest from $1,751 to $1,680 -- a difference of $71 each month.

Now, most of us don't have thousands of extra dollars lying around, and most buyers -- especially first-timers -- want to cut their initial outlay, not increase it. But for move-up buyers selling their old places at top dollar, paying points is something to consider.

"Sometimes it pays to pay," says Casey.

If you have the extra money, you should figure out how long it would take to recoup your investment in points, which is where the arithmetic comes in.

In the above example, it will take 42 months. That is, by dividing your savings into your cost -- $71 into $3,000 -- you find that in roughly 3 1/2 years, you will have made good on your extra investment. After that, it's all gravy: Remember, your rate never changes.

Another alternative is to add that $3,000 to your down payment, bringing the mortgage down to $297,000. But in that case, your payment would be just $53 a month lower and you wouldn't break even until 56 months go by.

The choice is yours. You might decide to just keep that $3,000 in your pocket. But if you're after the lowest payment possible, your decision should depend on how long you expect to keep the house before selling or refinancing.

If you're in it for the long haul, it would make sense to buy a point or two -- if you have the cash. But if you believe you'll move on in three years or less, keep your wallet closed.

Whether or not to opt for an adjustable-rate mortgage also rests, at least in part, on how long you plan to remain in the house. But in this case, short-termers are the main beneficiaries.

Like their name suggests, ARMs come with rates that adjust at various times. The rate can go up or down annually -- or less often, such as every three, five or seven years, depending on the loan. But ARMs come with safeguards so that the rate doesn't rise by too much at each adjustment, nor over the life of the loan.

In today's market, a 7/1 ARM is popular: The rate remains set for seven years, then adjusts annually after that. At the first adjustment, it could go up by as much as 5 percentage points, depending on the market at that time, but it can never go any higher. If the rate doesn't adjust by that much on the first ratchet, it can jump 1 percentage point each time -- but again, never by more than 5 points over the life of the loan.

The benefit is that the rate on ARMs start somewhat below the market. That's why there's been a rush on these of late: Earlier this month, 11% of all loan applications were for adjustable mortgages, the Mortgage Bankers Association reports. And the "introductory" rate on a 5/1 ARM -- one that remains set for five years and then adjusts annually -- was 4.47%, as opposed to 5.53% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan.

Let's look again at our $300,000 mortgage, this time as a 7-year ARM with 5/1/5 rate caps. Based on Fulton Mortgage's rate sheet, the monthly principal and interest payment would be $1,543. That's a $208 savings over a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 5.75%.

So, are you a gambler? No one knows where mortgage rates will be next week, let alone seven years from now. If our hypothetical loan were to adjust today, the rate would jump by the maximum allowable 5 points, bringing it well over 9%. Then again, it might never get that high.

The question, then, is: How long do you keep the loan, or the house? If you expect to move within seven years, you are ahead. If you stay longer, you could lose, depending on future rates. You could refinance, but rates could be even higher then, or your financial situation may have changed so that you wouldn't qualify.

Remember: The examples here are based on one lender's offerings; every lender has different pricing structures and rates. It's always wise to shop around.

The pandemic inspired millions of workers to make a break for it and leave their offices and jobs behind -- many to start their own businesses or try part-time work.

But COVID-19 also led the two largest suppliers of money for home loans to tighten their underwriting standards, making it more difficult for so-called "gig workers" to qualify for financing.

Now, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- the government-sponsored enterprises that purchase loans from primary lenders and bundle them into securities for sale to investors -- have lifted some of their more onerous requirements. As a result, funding should be more plentiful.

Indeed, California mortgage broker Jeff Lazerson believes that once the word is out, a flood of people who employ themselves or work part-time jobs will soon enter the homebuying scrum.

Gig workers are defined as independent contractors, on-call workers and temporary workers. Typically, they enter into formal agreements with on-demand companies to provide services to the company's clients. Musicians are gig workers, as are Lyft drivers, some tax preparers -- even syndicated housing columnists.

Prior to the pandemic, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated there would be 10.3 million of these workers by 2026. But since COVID struck, it's likely that figure will have risen much higher. Pew Research recently put the number at 16 million.

During the pandemic, lenders were required to obtain a year-to-date profit-and-loss statement reporting revenue, expenses and net income from self-employed borrowers if they wanted to sell their loans to Fannie and Freddie, as most do. Borrowers also had to present their most recent bank statements.

That didn't work for those gig workers who were paid cash, did not use banks or had no accountant to prepare the required documents. But now, those rules are gone and some lenders, perhaps sensing a grand opportunity to boost market share, are targeting gig workers directly.

Perhaps the most prominent lender in the country, Detroit-based Rocket Mortgage, is one of those. It advises self-employed borrowers to keep a careful eye on their all-important debt-to-income ratios. It also wants them to keep their credit in check and keep business expenses separate from personal expenses.

Another top lender, United Wholesale Mortgage, is offering bank statement loans for the self-employed. The Pontiac, Michigan-based wholesale lender does not originate loans directly; rather, it funds loans written by local mortgage brokers.

UWM recently told its lender-clients that it will allow "qualified borrowers" to provide their personal or business bank statements, as opposed to their tax returns, to qualify for a loan up to $3 million. The company's bank statement loans also allow down payments as low as 10%, and there is no need for mortgage insurance, a significant add-on many lenders charge when the down payment is less than 20%.

Smaller lenders that offer specialty mortgages are also reaching out to the self-employed. A typical one, Sprout Mortgage of Port Saint Lucie, Florida, makes a direct appeal, touting loans based on bank statements rather than W-2s or tax returns.

"We understand you love your freedom, you appreciate flexibility and you're ready to purchase a home, but you don't have all the documentation a typical mortgage requires," the company says on its website.

Meanwhile, in an indication this lending niche is growing, technology is catching up. For example, Freddie Mac has launched a new feature that analyzes direct deposit data to help underwriters make better decisions. According to Freddie, 97% of all workers, both full- and part-time, now use direct deposits.

At the same time, LoanLogics, a Jacksonville, Florida, technology firm, is supporting Freddie's initiative to expand "rep and warranty" relief eligibility. It does so by providing IRS data to be used to check the accuracy and integrity of the tax return data used to calculate borrower qualifying income. The insurance-like program protects lenders from data errors that can result in the miscalculation of income, which in turn could force lenders to buy back loans.

One of the big problems with gig workers is accounting for their sometimes-spotty, sometimes-seasonal and otherwise irregular incomes and debts. But LoanLogics' product will assist underwriters in calculating self-employment and nontraditional income from any source, the company says.

Fannie Mae is also expanding its verification process, albeit manually. When the required data is not instantly available digitally, underwriters now will be able to keep the process moving by turning to credit reporting agency Equifax for verification requirements.

Of course, not all gig workers drive part-time for DoorDash or sleep in their parents' basements. "Gig economy workers generally have full-time employment, are college educated, use the gig economy to supplement their income and make about $50,000 or more per year in total," a Fannie report says.

Still, there is a downside to lending to those who work in the gig economy. Jobs can end quickly and unexpectedly. Freelancers, for example, are usually let go before staffers. There's some uncertainty about how and when gig workers will be paid, and important benefits like health insurance and bonuses are all but nonexistent.

All in all, though, more gig workers will be able to enjoy the perks of self-employment without worrying that its quirks will prevent them from becoming homeowners.

-- Freelance writer Mark Fogarty contributed to this column.