For more than three years, a couple of married millennials have dreamed of buying a country property with lots of land.
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After missing out on several properties, they thought they’d found the perfect place last week. It was a well-priced farmhouse on 2.5 acres in an exurban suburb.
“We love the peace and quiet of country living. Our happy fantasies involve growing beautiful gardens and raising puppies on land we own,” says the wife, an MRI tech at a local hospital.
But once again, the couple lost out on a property of their choice. Other bidders came in higher than what they offered, which was already $50,000 over the list price.
“This time, our spirits really sank because we thought our over-list bid really did the trick,” the wife says.
Michael Crowley, a real estate broker who’s been in business since 1992, doesn’t know the couple in this true story. But he worries that their heartfelt desire to buy a country home could eventually cause them to bid an excessive amount well above market value.
“At a time when a housing shortage is causing a lot of people to offer ridiculous sums just to compete for a home in a desirable area, buyers have to be super careful not to go too high,” Crowley says.
As economists explain, the root of the problem for many homebuyers, including trade-up purchasers, is a serious shortage of available properties.
“Many homeowners are still opting not to sell and give up historically low mortgage rates. But those who do have been rewarded with bidding wars as buyers compete for limited options,” says Jeff Tucker, a senior economist for Zillow, the national real estate company.
He says a shortage of new listings has dogged the housing market for almost a year, adding that the market is short at least 320,000 properties for middle-income buyers.
Here are a few pointers for buyers who want to compete without bidding too high:
-- Choose your target neighborhood wisely.
Too many buyers let emotion dominate their decision on where to live, says Michael Knight, a financial adviser in the Chicago area.
“Many people pick a neighborhood too quickly,” according to Knight, who recommends you compare several areas before making your pick.
“You’ve got to do plenty of research. Have an informal talk with a few knowledgeable real estate agents in any area you’re considering. Ask them lots of hard questions before making your choice of the best possible community,” he says.
Which neighborhoods are most likely to hold or gain value in the future? He says those with well-regarded public and private schools are your best bet. Light rail access is also a hot ticket.
“People are really looking for good public transportation,” Knight says.
When talking to real estate agents, ask them to show you the neighborhood amenities on a map. Also, ask them to assemble data for you on sales trends in each community --including the median time it takes to sell a home there.
“Information is the key to making a solid long-term decision,” Knight says.
-- Hunt for sellers who are motivated to move.
As a would-be buyer, you may feel uncomfortable about seeking out owners who are under pressure to move because of a health reversal or lost job. But Crowley says you needn’t feel guilty about doing so.
“If the owners have to quickly liquidate their asset to pay whatever big bills they have coming due, they’ll be better off selling sooner rather than later,” he says.
How can you identify highly motivated sellers? Obviously, your agent can often find them through the Multiple Listing Service. An additional approach is to walk around the neighborhood on a weekend, striking up informal conversations with residents there.
“On a Saturday or Sunday, you will likely encounter residents who are out walking their dogs or taking their kids to the park. If you’re friendly and express your admiration for their area, they’ll likely chat openly with you and tell you which neighbors intend to move soon and the reasons why,” Crowley says.
-- Analyze property values in the area you wish to live.
Once you’ve chosen a locale where property values are solid and you find an ideal listing there, you’ll want to carefully assess its true current value before formulating a bid.
“With uncertainty about the U.S. economy in the future, it’s vitally important you obtain a true opinion of value to make sure you don’t go way, way over market value -- a move you could come to regret,” Crowley says.
To help develop a realistic estimate of the worth of the home you wish to buy, ask your agent to provide you with statistics on properties that have sold in recent weeks -- the fresher the data, the better.
As Crowley says, buyers who make an extreme offer on the high side are at risk of buyer’s remorse in future years.
“Remember that going way over the top on your bid now could mean winning the battle but losing the war,” he says.
(To contact Ellen James Martin, email her at ellenjamesmartin@gmail.com.)