When the Federal Reserve dropped its benchmark interest rate on Sept. 18, a couple of wannabe homebuyers in Colorado felt sure it would translate to lower mortgage rates. They hoped that would finally allow them to escape their rental for a townhouse of their own.
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But the relief experienced by the Gen Z couple -- a nurse married to an accountant -- was short-lived. Mortgage rates quickly rebounded, edging them back up out of their affordability range.
“We’ve been trying to buy since our baby boy was born three years ago. We saved like crazy to build up a down payment. But unfortunately, we’re still stuck in the tenant mode and feel helpless about that,” says the nurse.
Logan Mohtashami, a home industry analyst for HousingWire, a mortgage industry newsletter, doesn’t know the Colorado couple in this true story. But he empathizes with such aspiring yet frustrated homebuyers.
“This is a very confusing time for consumers,” says Mohtashami, who expects 2024 to mark the third straight year of declining home sales.
Despite the hurdles, he predicts that die-hard buyers will persevere, pushing forward until they reach their goal. But they would be wise to tread carefully.
During a period of mortgage rate volatility like this one, home loan experts caution that it’s always possible for buyers to overspend their budgets.
Here are a few pointers for determined buyers:
-- Realize that overborrowing remains a risk.
Keith Gumbinger, a vice president at HSH Associatess (hsh.com), which tracks mortgage markets for consumers, notes that most lenders work on commission.
“The bigger the loans they make, the higher their profits,” Gumbinger says.
Though household expenses have risen dramatically in many categories, lenders still use mortgage applicants’ gross income as the main gauge of their borrowing capacity.
“Lenders don’t know how much money you have left over after you’ve met all your other obligations ... They mainly focus on the long-term debts on your credit reports, such as car loans and credit card balances,” Gumbinger says.
Before agreeing to take out a mortgage that could make you house-poor, he encourages you to get a grasp of the mortgage lending process and to do a thorough inventory of both your expenses and spending priorities.
-- Review your pay stubs carefully.
It’s not only income taxes and Social Security contributions that come out of typical paychecks. Many people also have their net pay reduced by health insurance premiums as well as group life insurance and retirement savings plan contributions.
Although lenders focus primarily on gross income, “what matters most is the bottom line on your pay stub, not the top one,” says Mark Nash, a longtime real estate broker and author of “1001 Tips for Buying and Selling a Home.”
“When it comes to income, what matters most is the bottom line on your pay stub, not the top one,” Nash says.
-- Include basic expenses in your calculations.
No one knows for sure how much energy costs could ascend in coming years. But energy analysts say it’s far more likely that the costs for heating and cooling a home will rise rather than fall.
Nash says many first-time buyers are especially vulnerable to rising commuting costs when they leave an in-town apartment to obtain a detached home in the suburbs.
“People who commute by car ... should allow space in their budget for increases every year. Likely, their commuting costs will rise more quickly than people who use public transportation,” he says.
Remember, too, that high energy costs can affect many sectors of the economy.
“Energy costs ripple through nearly every element of our daily lives,” Nash says.
-- Take into account your expenses for medical and dental care.
Most working-age Americans with health insurance obtain it through a group policy from their employer. But many employer-based insurance plans are less generous than before. Chances are your share of the premiums is increasing, as are your deductibles and co-pays.
In doing an inventory of your health costs, be sure to take into account the rising cost of dental care.
“Many people have little or no coverage for routine dental visits, such as regular exams and cleanings. But the most overlooked dental expenses are for unexpected procedures, like a bridge or root canal. These are big-ticket items that can really zing your budget,” Nash says.
-- Reserve enough money for your child-related outlays.
Do you hope to have children within the next few years?
If so, you’ll want to factor the costs of child care into your calculations on how large a mortgage to carry, Nash says.
“It’s amazing how many people can’t afford kids because their mortgage payments are too high. The shame of it is they didn’t think through the trade-offs before buying that big house,” he says.
As Nash notes, the cost of day care for a baby can easily rise above the $500-a-week mark, causing some mortgage-strapped families to forgo a second child altogether.
“It’s sad to think you’re going to give up the larger family you want just to get a bigger house with more bells and whistles,” he says.
(To contact Ellen James Martin, email her at ellenjamesmartin@gmail.com.)