The steep rise in mortgage rates is crushing the hopes of many young adults who feel trapped in their rental units.
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“We have never seen mortgage rates shoot up this fast at this magnitude. Even people who want to buy, they are priced out,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors (nar.realtor).
Compounding aspiring buyers' pain, home prices are staying at high levels. Indeed, the median price of a U.S. home hit a record $416,000 in June, a jump of 13.4% over last year.
Although the affordability problem has slowed sales, there’s still a hard core of would-be homeowners determined to meet the ownership challenge before 2022 comes to a close.
“These are ‘leftover buyers’ who missed out in bidding wars during the last 12 to 24 months. They’re not throwing in the towel until they obtain a property,” says Richard Rosa, president of the National Association of Exclusive Buyer Agents (naeba.org).
Because many sellers are starting to cut asking prices, some housing analysts expect that home values could eventually slip somewhat from the high levels they reached during the worst of the pandemic, though this hasn’t occurred yet.
Ivy Zelman, who tracks real estate stocks for Wall Street investors, says a further decline in list prices is a real possibility, especially when it comes to newly constructed homes sold by builders.
Given the current uncertainties facing real estate, it’s time for aspiring buyers to rethink their plans, says Rosa, who co-heads a Massachusetts realty firm with 20 brokers.
“We’re not yet in a buyer’s market by any means. But there are opportunities for purchasers who think through their priorities and take a strategic approach,” Rosa says.
Here are a few pointers for income-stretched buyers:
-- Don’t play the “bottom feeder” game at this stage of the real estate cycle.
Though many neighborhood markets are now entering a new cooldown phase, that doesn’t mean buyers can dominate the way they did after the 2008 financial crisis.
“In the Boston area, for instance, there are still too few available homes to meet demand. That’s why we still see multiple bidding situations -- though with many fewer bidders than before. Therefore, if you’re buying in a high-demand area like this, don’t get overconfident about your ability to bargain right now,” Rosa says.
Even so, buyers in the current market have somewhat more latitude than during the most heated days of the market. That means they can be more choosy about their property picks. They’ll also be under less pressure to forgo a home inspection as part of a competitive bid.
-- Consider a home that’s gone vacant.
It’s tough to gain details on a house that’s been vacant for months, especially if its owners have moved away to retire or take a job transfer. It’s harder still if the empty property has fallen into the ownership of a bank through foreclosure.
“The bank won’t tell you anything. And frankly the folks at the bank, or the real estate agent they’ve hired, probably won’t know much about the people who lived there,” says Merrill Ottwein, a veteran real estate broker with Coldwell Banker.
To get the scoop on a vacant property that interests you, your best sources are often neighbors.
Neighbors “probably know all the skeletons in the closet. They’ll spill all they know and tell you if the people who lived there kept up the place before they moved out,” Ottwein says.
Most people who must leave due to foreclosure don’t deliberately damage their home. Still, their financial problems could mean they lacked money for crucial maintenance chores during their tenure in the property, he says.
-- Don’t rule out a “pre-inspection” of a vacant place.
Perhaps the property you like has gone unsold for so long that you’re nervous about hidden defects. In fact, you don’t even want to make an offer until you know more. In such cases, Ottwein advises you to consider hiring a home inspector to take a preliminary look.
What are the advantages of hiring a home inspector to check a property before (rather than after) you’ve submitted your bid?
“If you decide to go through with the purchase, a pre-inspection will let you set your bid based on findings from the inspection. Then if you decide to back out of the deal, you can walk away without complications,” Ottwein says.
-- Factor in neighborhood property values before bidding.
“Before you shape your offer, you and your agent should take a careful look at the recent sales history in your neighborhood. In markets that are still hot, it’s imperative that you be extra vigilant to avoid overpaying,” Ottwein says.
Ideally, you’ll want to examine at least three similar properties that have sold in the immediate area in the past three to six months, adjusting for differences, such as a larger garage or a second fireplace.
Although you’ll want to take a home’s condition into account when judging its market value, Ottwein cautions against seeking out-of-proportion discounts to compensate for superficial shortcomings.
“So what if the owners took the light bulbs with them when they had to move, or if they painted the walls in a color you don’t like? Don’t get emotional about these small issues,” he says.
(To contact Ellen James Martin, email her at ellenjamesmartin@gmail.com.)