Smart Moves

The real estate market is cooling, mortgage rates are jumping and home prices are staying relatively high in many metro areas. Yet in the wake of the pandemic, housing specialists say 2023 could present a genuine opportunity for some young families to buy a brand-new house in an outlying area.

Though many so-called workers” have been called back to their offices in metro centers, others still enjoy the freedom to reside in a dream setting in a small town or rural area far away from their employers’ offices.

Take the case of a 28-year-old medical researcher who works as a data analyst for a Philadelphia hospital. After COVID-19 struck, she and her consultant husband took a rental in rural Pennsylvania, where they can work from home and raise their baby boy in a bucolic valley. Now they aspire to own a new property in the same area.

“It’s like heaven living here. Luckily our bosses say we can keep working remotely for the indefinite future,” says the consultant, also 28.

Such untethered workers are among the most motivated would-be buyers, says Glenn Kelman, the CEO of Redfin, the Seattle-based real estate brokerage.

“Despite more expensive mortgage money, there are some reassuring elements for buyers in the current real estate landscape,” says Eric Tyson, a personal finance expert and co-author of “Home Buying For Dummies.”

One reassuring element is that homeowners are starting to moderate their asking prices more quickly than in past housing downturns.

“Sellers are getting realistic a lot faster than before,” says Ryan Gorman, CEO of Coldwell Banker, the national real estate franchise based in New Jersey.

With their aspiration to purchase a brand-new property, the Pennsylvania couple have reason to believe they will fare better in 2023 than they would have during the pandemic, when newly constructed properties were in exceptionally high demand.

“Builders continue to face lower buyer traffic due to declining affordability conditions,” says Jerry Konter, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (nahb.org).

Konter, a builder in Georgia, notes that across the country, new home sales are down 14.3% on a year-to-date basis compared to 2021.

To take full advantage of the positives in the current real estate market, housing specialists advise buyers to define their dreams before shopping for property.

“Think through carefully what’s truly important to you in a neighborhood and a house. Also, pin down your affordability range,” Tyson says.

Here are a few pointers for buyers:

-- Open your research with an early visit to a mortgage lender.

Realtors with experience are quick to identify those who claim they’re candidates for an upscale house yet can’t even afford a more modest place. Sometimes they decline to show them property of any sort.

Though very few would-be buyers are delusional, Richard Courtney, a Nashville-based real estate broker and author, says most need to see a mortgage lender to set a ceiling on what they can afford. That way, they won’t waste time looking at properties above their reach.

-- Think through your true preferences before starting your search.

Once you know how much you can afford, it’s time to reflect on your true wants and needs -- and to do so with a spouse or a partner if you’re part of a couple.

Tyson suggests you retreat to a tranquil space, shut off your phones and discuss your priorities in a focused way.

“All homebuyers -- except the ultra-rich -- face tough tradeoffs. They’ve got to compromise more than they’d like because property prices have outstripped their income gains,” he says.

Would you rather have a two-car garage or a fourth bedroom? Would you opt for a smaller house on a bigger lot or vice versa? These are questions no real estate agent can answer for you.

Of course, you may ultimately purchase something quite different than what you had in mind during your initial soul-searching session. But you’re less likely to make a huge mistake if you’ve thought through your goals from the outset.

-- Disclose your authentic reactions to the homes you visit.

“Unfortunately, some buyers are so fearful of offending their agents that they suppress their true reactions to property they’re shown,” Tyson says.

But to avoid taking you further off track, your agent needs to hear your negative reactions to properties you don’t like.

Do you feel cramped in a home with eight-foot ceilings? Does a townhouse development with a communal parking lot seem unpleasant to you? Then share these responses with your agent.

“Yes, agents can surmise some of your reactions by noticing your body language. But don’t expect them to read your mind,” Tyson says.

-- Allow a trusted agent some latitude to pre-screen properties for you.

Although you want your agent to be guided by your preferences, it’s also wise to allow the agent some leeway to occasionally add in a wild card. This is a home that your agent thinks you might like, even though it doesn’t meet all your search criteria.

Agents who are in sync with their clients’ reactions can sometimes guess when they’ll like a particular property -- even one that doesn’t sound right on paper.

“I’m not surprised anymore when people buy a place that bears little resemblance to what they first said they wanted. They didn’t lie. They just changed their minds,” Courtney says.

(To contact Ellen James Martin, email her at ellenjamesmartin@gmail.com.)

A couple in their 50s inherited a stately all-stone colonial house in a Maryland suburb. Confident about their odds of selling well, they put the property on the market last June for $1.5 million.

“They were looking for a gold mine,” says Ashley Richardson, the agent they hired to market the property. But despite multiple price cuts, the house failed to attract a single offer until just this month. That’s when the 30-something parents of a toddler boy submitted a bid slightly under the current asking price.

Still, the rigid sellers are refusing to negotiate with their potential buyers. Not only are they seeking the full asking price, they’re also holding out for buyers willing to waive their right to a home inspection.

“Many sellers are stubborn these days. Due to changing market conditions, sellers need to give a little more, or they can miss out on the opportunities given them,” says Richardson, an agent who sells property through Long & Foster, a regional realty firm.

Jeb Smith, a real estate broker who’s listed homes in Orange County, California, for 20 years, says that given the rapid recent cooling of the housing market, it’s understandable if owners are confused on pricing.

“With all the craziness in the economy, the market is moving faster than sellers can get their heads around,” says Smith, of Coldwell Banker.

Another confusing factor is there are huge variations in property valuations -- even within the same neighborhood. Homes that are fully updated and meet contemporary taste standards -- what Smith calls “turnkey homes” -- are still commanding higher prices than those needing kitchen or bathroom renovations.

“Due to the pride of ownership, people always think their place is worth more than the one down the street that sold last year after a big bidding war. That’s just human nature,” Smith says.

Here are a few pointers for sellers:

-- Look into very recent sales in your area before setting your price.

Even before your home is listed and open for showings, your agent will likely recommend an asking price. But before accepting any pricing recommendation, all sellers, no matter how hurried, should do at least a nominal amount of research.

“Tell your agent to give you a list of nearby properties still under contract -- the more current the better. Then ask the agent to look into details about the properties that sold, including whether they had been updated,” says Richardson, who’s affiliated with the Residential Real Estate Council (crs.com). In addition, before setting your price, drive by the sold properties for comparison purposes.

Perhaps your drive-by tour will raise questions about whether your agent is suggesting too high or low an asking price. If so, request additional data in support of the recommended price. Then reach your own conclusion.

-- Choose a listing agent with experience.

“When you’re feeling overwhelmed about the details of your home sale, it can be wise to engage a take-charge real estate agent who’s worked through many transitional markets,” says Merrill Ottwein, a Coldwell Banker broker based in Illinois.

He recommends you find someone with considerable experience selling properties in the same community where you live.

Contacting the managing broker of a local real estate office is one way to identify a skillful agent. But make sure you find one with an impressive track record selling your type of property in your price range.

“It’s also smart to contact references who’ve previously worked with the agent to find out how well their transactions worked,” Ottwein says.

-- Don’t rule out a list price just one notch below prevailing market values.

Surprisingly, sellers on a tight deadline can often receive more for their property if they price it just a few percentage points below its apparent market value, Smith says.

“Given the internet, buyers are alert to fair market pricing. That’s why pricing slightly under market can generate lots of interest among buyers,” he says.

-- Hasten a home sale through delegation.

If you’re struggling to sell quickly -- perhaps due to a job transfer -- you may have no more than a few weeks to get your home ready for showings.

“In that case, you need a shortened preparation process that still covers all your home’s cosmetic needs and basic repairs,” Ottwein says.

One obvious way to reduce your prep time is to hire contractors for work you might normally do yourself.

“I know there are many cost-conscious people who are resistant to hiring others to do improvements they could do themselves, like painting or carpet cleaning. But if your time window is narrow, the odds are the work will go much faster if you bring contractors in,” Ottwein says.

What’s more, as he notes, sellers with properties that are sparkling clean and freshly painted generally recoup more at closing than they spend to hire contractors.

-- Develop a backup plan for your property’s sale.

Occasionally, even a home that’s well located and accurately priced will fail to sell quickly for reasons hard to determine.

To avoid panic in this situation, Ottwein encourages sellers to prepare a Plan B should the process take longer than expected and you have to go forward with a move anyway.

Maybe you’ll arrange for a trusted family member to take over responsibility for your home sale. Or perhaps you’ll want to buy time by putting your property up for rent for a few months.

“Under the best of circumstances, selling a home is stressful. But having a backup plan will help you manage your stress load,” Ottwein says.

(To contact Ellen James Martin, email her at ellenjamesmartin@gmail.com.)

An Ohio couple in their late 20s -- a nurse and her lawyer husband -- were too intimidated by the overheated real estate market to make any bids during the pandemic. But despite soaring interest rates, they now see reasons for optimism.

“As first-time buyers we have a flexible timeline on when to move. Also, we’re witnessing more motivated sellers willing to accept an offer contingent on a home inspection, which is key for us,” says the lawyer.

Though a large number of would-be purchasers are now sitting on the sidelines because higher mortgage rates have cost them buying power, others with ample down payment money are pressing forward with their plans.

Indeed, novice buyers are now better positioned to make a purchase in many cases than are repeat buyers, says Manny Garcia, a population scientist for Zillow, the national real estate company.

“First-time buyers now appear to be making relative gains as high mortgage interest rates disproportionately encourage homeowners to stay put,” Garcia says.

In spite of affordability challenges, first-time buyers now represent 45% of all buyers, up from 37% last year.

“While rising mortgage rates are hurting affordability for all buyers, first-time buyers may be less deterred by higher rates because they’re comparing a monthly mortgage payment with what they’re paying in rent,” Garcia says.

George Ratiu, a senior economist for Realtor.com, the home listing firm, says wannabe homeowners are heartened by the relative increase in available properties due to a “rebalancing” of the market in buyers’ favor.

“Homebuyers have more for-sale homes to choose from compared to this time last year, as inventory has been improving steadily in recent weeks,” Ratiu says. This means buyers have more time to find good deals and think through purchasing options without missing out.

Here are a few pointers for first timers:

-- Seek out truly willing sellers.

The loss of a job is one common reason why homeowners must sell; divorce is another. Also, an increasing number of older baby boomers must sell to cover living costs in retirement.

Understandably, many potential home sellers with low-rate mortgages are reluctant to move if it means financing their next property with a higher-rate home loan. Yet in all markets there are always some “mandatory sellers” who have no alternative but to move, says Stephanie Vitacco, a real estate broker with Equity Union in Los Angeles.

As a potential first-time buyer, you might feel awkward seeking out owners who are under pressure to sell. But there’s nothing unethical about doing this, says Tom Early, a broker and past president of the National Association of Exclusive Buyer Agents (naeba.org).

How can you identify those who are highly motivated to sell? Early suggests you ask your real estate agent to draw up a list of properties in your favored area that have been on the market for an extended period. Also, he recommends you go to the neighborhood where you’d like to buy and talk informally to residents.

“Tell the local residents how much you appreciate their neighborhood and they’ll be more likely to open up with you as to which houses could soon hit the Multiple Listing Service,” Early says.

-- Invest time in researching the neighborhoods you’re targeting.

Early says many novice homebuyers let emotion dominate their thinking about where to live. But he strongly recommends that you also factor in some statistical measures before finalizing your neighborhood choice. This should increase your odds of choosing an area where prices are likely to rise in the future.

One way to help identify highly motivated sellers is by crunching numbers. Ask your real estate agent to determine the average “days on market” (from list to sale) for properties in the area you’ve chosen. Then look for homes in that price range that have been sitting unsold for a longer-than-average period.

Before crafting an offer on the home of your choice, Early suggests you also examine another set of numbers: the average list-to-sale price differential. If you note that most properties have recently fetched 90% of their list price, you might consider a first bid at a 10% discount off what’s being asked -- assuming your research shows this is warranted, he says.

-- Resist the urge to critique any home you’re considering.

Suppose you’re seriously considering a certain home. However, you’ve seen a few minor flaws in the floor plan, such as an inconveniently located laundry room and the absence of a first-floor bathroom.

In an attempt to strengthen your bargaining position, should you write a letter highlighting these drawbacks and also noting the owners’ poor taste in choosing to paint their kitchen sunshine yellow? Absolutely not, says Sid Davis, the broker-author of “A Survival Guide for Buying a Home.”

“It’s almost universally true that homeowners have pride in their properties and would be defensive about a strong critique,” he says.

Of course, you and your home inspector should be forthright in itemizing repairs that need to be done to bring the property up to standard, such as roof repairs or the replacement of a nonfunctional water heater. But the inspector should do so in a courteous manner that doesn’t insult the owners.

“Remember, it’s better to be gently assertive than obnoxious,” Davis says.

(To contact Ellen James Martin, email her at ellenjamesmartin@gmail.com.)