Smart Moves

Two years ago, a couple in their mid-30s -- a museum administrator and a sales manager -- began weighing the pros and cons of buying a home of their own. But only recently did they get serious about their search for a townhouse in a leafy suburb near their workplaces. No longer are they waiting for home prices to slip in the desirable neighborhood of their choice.

“What triggered them to leave the sidelines was their landlord’s notice of a major rent increase. They’re also afraid that a year from now, home prices will be even higher. In addition, they’re having a big wedding in December, and want to settle down,” says Stacy Berman, the real estate agent assisting the pair.

Berman says that despite relatively high mortgage rates, many would-be buyers are unwilling to delay longer. At this point in the cycle, they fear that postponing will only mean paying more for a property, given the severe shortage of available homes.

Danielle Hale, the chief economist for Realtor.com, the online listing service, says the number of available homes has dropped 25% from a year ago.

“Sellers are exercising caution in their selling decisions, likely due to being locked into mortgage rates that are significantly lower than the current rate,” Hale says.

Nearly one-quarter of homeowners now have a mortgage rate below 3%, which is roughly half the prevailing rate.

Jasmine Harris, a Redfin real estate agent in Atlanta, says, “The only people selling right now are the ones who need to.” They include those getting divorced or moving abroad. They also include retirees who wish to move out of state to be closer to their grown children and grandchildren.

Are you a homeowner now contemplating a sale without delay? If so, these few pointers could prove helpful:

-- Downscale your expectations for major price jumps.

Sid Davis, a real estate broker and author of “A Survival Guide to Selling a Home,” says that even in some exceptionally strong markets, demand is not as great as it was during the pandemic when multiple offers were the norm rather than the exception.

It’s not that would-be purchasers are no longer crafting competitive offers. Many are still making above-list-price bids. Some are even including “escalator clauses” to top the highest rival purchaser.

But sellers who are arrogant about their pricing and terms of sale are more likely to be financially hurt in the end.

“This isn’t the right time to be a greedy seller -- if it ever was,” Davis says.

He says a listing agent who’s skilled in calculating the right price for a property is a valuable ally for sellers who want to hit the target when their home first goes up for sale.

“Remember that a house that sits unsold for long eventually gets stigmatized,” Davis says.

-- Look for a listing agent in your immediate area.

When it comes time to sell a home, many owners think it’s wise to hire a trusted family member as their listing agent. But Davis cautions against choosing someone from your inner circle.

Even if your family member has a proven track record in real estate, choosing that individual as your agent could be a mistake.

“Your relatives probably won’t tell you if your place is a dump that needs to be decluttered or that it’s worth a lot less than you think,” Davis says.

He recommends you interview three agents who work in your area to determine the right one to sell your house. Ask each to give you a candid evaluation of both the condition and current worth of your place. Also question all three on how they came up with their pricing recommendations.

“You want to see the actual comparable sales used to support their recommendations. In a changing market, it’s especially important that these sales be very recent --preferably for houses sold within the last month,” Davis says.

-- Consider a listing agent’s track record on pricing.

Are you planning to sell a home in an area where property values are now flat or slipping slightly? There are still such communities, especially in areas where unemployment is increasing, perhaps due to the closure of a local factory or military base. In that case, it’s unlikely you’ll receive your full asking price at the closing table. But if your property was marked correctly from the outset, you should still come quite close.

How can you judge whether the agents you’re interviewing have a good track record on pricing? One way is to review a few key numbers on their past listings, such as “list-to-sale” statistics. Then compare the original asking price versus the sum ultimately received by the sellers.

If the agent is routinely making realistic recommendations, there should be little difference between the original list price and the final sale price.

“Don’t listen to any agent trying to flatter you into a ‘feel-good price’ that’s much higher than other pros are suggesting -- with the unspoken expectation of seeking a price cut later. That could lead to a very subpar sale,” Davis says.

(To contact Ellen James Martin, email her at ellenjamesmartin@gmail.com.)

For more than three years, a couple of married millennials have dreamed of buying a country property with lots of land.

After missing out on several properties, they thought they’d found the perfect place last week. It was a well-priced farmhouse on 2.5 acres in an exurban suburb.

“We love the peace and quiet of country living. Our happy fantasies involve growing beautiful gardens and raising puppies on land we own,” says the wife, an MRI tech at a local hospital.

But once again, the couple lost out on a property of their choice. Other bidders came in higher than what they offered, which was already $50,000 over the list price.

“This time, our spirits really sank because we thought our over-list bid really did the trick,” the wife says.

Michael Crowley, a real estate broker who’s been in business since 1992, doesn’t know the couple in this true story. But he worries that their heartfelt desire to buy a country home could eventually cause them to bid an excessive amount well above market value.

“At a time when a housing shortage is causing a lot of people to offer ridiculous sums just to compete for a home in a desirable area, buyers have to be super careful not to go too high,” Crowley says.

As economists explain, the root of the problem for many homebuyers, including trade-up purchasers, is a serious shortage of available properties.

“Many homeowners are still opting not to sell and give up historically low mortgage rates. But those who do have been rewarded with bidding wars as buyers compete for limited options,” says Jeff Tucker, a senior economist for Zillow, the national real estate company.

He says a shortage of new listings has dogged the housing market for almost a year, adding that the market is short at least 320,000 properties for middle-income buyers.

Here are a few pointers for buyers who want to compete without bidding too high:

-- Choose your target neighborhood wisely.

Too many buyers let emotion dominate their decision on where to live, says Michael Knight, a financial adviser in the Chicago area.

“Many people pick a neighborhood too quickly,” according to Knight, who recommends you compare several areas before making your pick.

“You’ve got to do plenty of research. Have an informal talk with a few knowledgeable real estate agents in any area you’re considering. Ask them lots of hard questions before making your choice of the best possible community,” he says.

Which neighborhoods are most likely to hold or gain value in the future? He says those with well-regarded public and private schools are your best bet. Light rail access is also a hot ticket.

“People are really looking for good public transportation,” Knight says.

When talking to real estate agents, ask them to show you the neighborhood amenities on a map. Also, ask them to assemble data for you on sales trends in each community --including the median time it takes to sell a home there.

“Information is the key to making a solid long-term decision,” Knight says.

-- Hunt for sellers who are motivated to move.

As a would-be buyer, you may feel uncomfortable about seeking out owners who are under pressure to move because of a health reversal or lost job. But Crowley says you needn’t feel guilty about doing so.

“If the owners have to quickly liquidate their asset to pay whatever big bills they have coming due, they’ll be better off selling sooner rather than later,” he says.

How can you identify highly motivated sellers? Obviously, your agent can often find them through the Multiple Listing Service. An additional approach is to walk around the neighborhood on a weekend, striking up informal conversations with residents there.

“On a Saturday or Sunday, you will likely encounter residents who are out walking their dogs or taking their kids to the park. If you’re friendly and express your admiration for their area, they’ll likely chat openly with you and tell you which neighbors intend to move soon and the reasons why,” Crowley says.

-- Analyze property values in the area you wish to live.

Once you’ve chosen a locale where property values are solid and you find an ideal listing there, you’ll want to carefully assess its true current value before formulating a bid.

“With uncertainty about the U.S. economy in the future, it’s vitally important you obtain a true opinion of value to make sure you don’t go way, way over market value -- a move you could come to regret,” Crowley says.

To help develop a realistic estimate of the worth of the home you wish to buy, ask your agent to provide you with statistics on properties that have sold in recent weeks -- the fresher the data, the better.

As Crowley says, buyers who make an extreme offer on the high side are at risk of buyer’s remorse in future years.

“Remember that going way over the top on your bid now could mean winning the battle but losing the war,” he says.

(To contact Ellen James Martin, email her at ellenjamesmartin@gmail.com.)

An IT specialist and his homemaker wife both turned 40 this year. The milestone birthday came with one major regret: After three years of trying, they still haven’t reached their goal of homeownership in their native Minneapolis.

“It’s just one darn impediment after another. We stockpiled down payment funds -- but not enough to beat other buyers during the bidding wars of the pandemic. Now we’re facing even more trouble with high mortgage rates,” the IT specialist says.

Should this couple succumb to the economic forces affecting them and just resign themselves to renting for the indefinite future? Or should they plow ahead in hopes of finding a fairly priced property within their spending limits? Homebuyer advocates urge the latter course.

“Of course, higher mortgage rates cut into buying power. But what buyers forget is that rates always fluctuate. This means it’s extremely likely that down the road they could refinance their mortgage to a lower rate,” says Michael Crowley, a longtime real estate broker and past president of the National Association of Exclusive Buyer Agents (naeba.org)

When it comes to shaping an offer for a property you like, Crowley cautions against letting your emotions get the best of you, even if you’re enamored with the place and are competing with rival bidders.

“You can’t always count on appreciation to bail you out if you have to sell and move unexpectedly in two or three years. Remember, too, there are high transaction costs involved in selling one house and buying another,” he says.

Crowley recommends that buyers who could be tempted to overpay set a ceiling on how high they’ll go and stick to that limit.

“Base your highest potential bid on both recent sales in the same neighborhood and what you can afford. Then put that top number on an index card and carry it in your pocket when you go to your agent’s office to write up any offer or counteroffer,” he says.

Here are a few more pointers for buyers:

-- Think ahead before limiting yourself to a single neighborhood.

Too many buyers let emotion dominate their decision making on where to live, says Michael Knight, a fee-only financial planner in the Chicago area.

“Have an informal talk with a few knowledgeable real estate agents in any area you’re considering. Ask them lots of hard questions before making your choice of the best possible community,” he says.

Which neighborhoods are most likely to hold or gain value in the future? Knight says top-quality public schools are critical, particularly now that private schools are out of reach financially for more families.

Access to walkable retail stores and quality transit are also high on the list.

“People are really looking for good public transportation. You’ll buy a more marketable home if it’s close to popular light rail or bus lines,” Knight says.

When talking to real estate agents, ask them to show you the neighborhood’s amenities on a map. Also, ask them to assemble data for you on sales trends in the community -- including the median time it takes to sell a home there.

-- Seek out sellers who are highly motivated to move.

It’s no secret that homeowners in many neighborhoods still have the upper hand if they’re attempting to sell a reasonably priced property in a desirable area. Very few owners are now attempting to sell in order to avert foreclosure. But it’s still possible to find some who are eager to move.

As a would-be buyer, you may feel uncomfortable about seeking out owners who must sell quickly due to the loss of a job or mortgage payments that are too high for their income. But Crowley says you needn’t feel guilty about doing so.

“You could actually be doing the sellers a favor in such a case. Even if you buy at a discount off the current market value, the owners will likely do better selling to you than they would if the bank took away the house and ruined their credit in the process,” he says.

How can you identify highly motivated sellers before the foreclosure process begins? Obviously, your agent can often find them through the Multiple Listing Service. Another approach is to walk around the neighborhood on a weekend, striking up informal conversations with residents there.

“On a Saturday or Sunday, you will likely encounter residents who are out walking their dogs or taking their kids to the park. If you’re friendly and express your admiration for their area, they’ll likely chat openly with you and tell you neighbors they know who intend to move soon and the reasons why,” Crowley says.

-- Do your research on local property values.

Once you’ve chosen a neighborhood where property values are solid and have found your dream home there, you’ll want to carefully assess its true current value before formulating a bid.

To help develop a realistic estimate of the worth of the home you wish to buy, ask your agent to provide you with statistics on properties that have sold in recent weeks -- the fresher the data, the better. Make sure this analysis takes into account any likely “distress sales” that have occurred lately, which often come at a sacrificial price for the sellers.

“Even if we face a recession, it’s unlikely that prices will plummet in coming years. Still, it’s a very good idea to resist overpaying, even if you love the house. Should you have to walk away from one house you like, I guarantee you’ll find another one that’s an equal or better choice,” Crowley says.

(To contact Ellen James Martin, email her at ellenjamesmartin@gmail.com.)