For much of this summer, homebuilder sentiment was riding high. That’s because so few existing properties are available for sale, causing many buyers to seek out brand new construction instead. As a result, the stock of homebuilding companies temporarily rose in value.
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But relentlessly higher rates on home mortgages, now firmly over the 7% mark, have even dampened the outlook for these stocks. As investors are well aware, ever more Americans are being priced out of many desirable homebuying markets. Compounding the problem is that so few homeowners are now willing to sell.
“The supply shortage is making many listings feel hot. This means buyers who are in the market now are duking it out for a very small pool of homes, preventing home values from plunging,” says Chen Zhao, who heads economic research for Redfin, a major realty brokerage.
The explanation behind the dearth of available properties is that many owners with low-rate mortgages are understandably resisting relocation if that means taking on a pricier mortgage to buy their next abode.
“Roughly 9 in 10 homeowners with mortgages have a mortgage rate under 6%. Tons of homeowners scored an incredible deal during the pandemic: a 3% mortgage rate for the remainder of their 30-year loan,” Zhao says.
The happiness felt by many homeowners with low-cost mortgages contrasts sharply with the psychological pain experienced by so many now seeking to buy their first home.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (nar.realtor) says that nearly 60% of metro areas posted price gains during the second quarter of 2023.
“Home sales were down due to higher mortgage rates and limited inventory,” Yun says. Still, he notes that there are some metro areas where home prices are now sliding. These include such high-cost cities as San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Would-be homebuyers have other reasons to feel somewhat hopeful, according to Nicole Bachaud, a senior economist for Zillow, a national real estate firm.
“As summer winds down and kids head back to school, home shopping gets put on the back burner. Traditionally, buyers who remain in the market get a bit more bargaining power heading into the fall,” Bachaud says.
Here are a few pointers for buyers:
-- Seek out overpriced properties after price reductions are taken.
In an area where the market is beginning to shift slightly in favor of buyers, it sometimes takes sellers time to adjust their thinking.
“Some sellers have an entitlement mentality and cling to overly high expectations about the value of their property,” says Sid Davis, a Utah real estate broker.
Have you targeted a neighborhood where you have a strong interest in one or more homes that you and your agent believe are priced well over market value? Davis suggests you may wish to wait until the sellers come down on their own before you start bidding.
A significant price drop is often a signal that once-stubborn sellers are ready to bargain in earnest, maybe because they face a deadline of their own.
“Perhaps the sellers have moved out of town to take a new job, and their old property has gone vacant. Then, as soon as they have to start carrying two mortgages, they become much more eager to bargain in earnest,” says Davis, author of “A Survival Guide for Buying a Home.”
The key to a wait-for-a-price-drop strategy is to keep a close eye on a home of interest so you can submit your bid at the opportune moment and not lose the property to another purchaser.
“Make sure you stay in close touch with your buyer’s agent so you’ll know the minute a price drop occurs. It’s also a good idea to set up an alert to notify you by text or email that a price drop is occurring,” Davis says.
-- Don’t waive your right to a home inspection needlessly.
In strong sellers’ markets of past years, would-be buyers who had to contend with rival purchasers often waived their right to a home inspection to increase their appeal to sellers.
But Tom Early, a veteran real estate broker, says inspections are nearly always a vitally important idea --especially for those planning to buy a property that’s over 15 years of age, which could have serious problems.
In most cases, inspectors don’t find serious shortcomings. Still, Early says that many lesser issues that are found can be used to the buyers’ advantage in gaining concessions.
Suppose, for example, that your inspector projects that the roof on the house will likely fail in three to five years. With this information, you might convince the sellers to cover part or all of the cost of a new roof.
-- Avoid insulting the owners of any property you’d like to own.
In areas where rising inventories are giving buyers more power, Davis says some prospective buyers try to take liberties that can backfire.
One common mistake involves any statement you might make that wounds the sellers’ pride in their home. Another misstep involves making a ridiculously below-market bid which so stuns the owners that they may refuse to deal further with you.
“People who make ludicrously low offers are often the victims of their own folly,” Davis says.
(To contact Ellen James Martin, email her at ellenjamesmartin@gmail.com.)