So far, the IRS has processed 144 million tax returns through May 10, 2024 (tinyurl.com/5t59f7xm). Most (137,394 million) were e-filed either by the taxpayer or a tax professional.

The Free File program (tinyurl.com/4hsj7bnp), which involves private-sector partners teaming with the IRS to offer free online tax software to qualifying taxpayers, is still available for tax 2023 taxpayers on extension, and longer -- as the IRS announced a five-year extension of Free File through October 2029.

The Free File program, which is only available on IRS.gov, processed 2.9 million returns in 2024 as of May 11, which was up from 2.7 million returns filed during the same period last year (tinyurl.com/5t59f7xm).

There were eight private-sector firms that served as Free File partners in 2024. To qualify for using Free File, taxpayers had to have an adjusted gross income (AGI) of $79,000 or less in 2023. Those taxpayers with an AGI over $79,000 could still use the IRS Free File Fillable Forms.

Another program called Direct File (tinyurl.com/mryhy5cj), which is a "free, public electronic return-filing service option," will become a permanent option beginning with the 2025 tax filing season. Direct File is part of the IRS Inflation Reduction Act Strategic Operating Plan (tinyurl.com/5n6pnt58).

Tests through a 2024 pilot program were quite successful, with more than 140,000 "relatively simple" tax returns being filed through Direct File. The IRS program focused on full-time residents of 12 states. If a taxpayer had a tax situation that was not part of the scope of the program, he or she was directed to other options.

Ninety percent of more than 15,000 Direct File users who participated in a survey said that they ranked their experience with Direct File as being excellent or above average, as detailed in the "IRS Direct File Pilot: Filing Season 2024 After Action Report" (tinyurl.com/2muyvtz8). Also, 86% of those surveyed said their experience with Direct File increased their trust in the IRS.

Nearly half of Direct File users "reported paying for tax preparation the previous year," IRS Commissioner Daniel Werfel stated in the report, adding that "the Treasury Department estimates that Direct File users saved $5.6 million in tax preparation fees."

Keep in mind that statistics published in the instructions for IRS Form 1040 for tax year 2023 indicate that non-business taxpayers, who make up 72% of all tax returns, spend roughly nine hours and $150 in preparing their taxes each year (tinyurl.com/y8hays3r).

Direct File also "issued more than $90 million in tax refunds and collected $35 million in tax balances due," Werfel said. Overall, the IRS distributed more than $269 billion through May 10, 2024.

The IRS pointed out in its statement that Direct File "will continue to be one option among many from which taxpayers can choose. It is not meant to replace other important options by tax professionals or commercial software providers, who are critical partners with the IRS." The IRS added that it "remains committed to the ongoing relationship with Free File Inc."

Other IRS free filing options for qualifying taxpayers include the Volunteer Income Tax Assistance program and the Tax Counseling for the Elderly program (tinyurl.com/34jbmdxz), with 2.6 million returns prepared through those options.

Expect to hear more details about an expansion of Direct File in the coming months, according to the IRS.

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Say you own the stock of a company whose earnings increased dramatically over the last quarter. Expecting a nice bump up in price, you see the stock price heading in the opposite direction.

What happened? How could good news suddenly become bad news?

This is where analysts enter the picture.

Analysts offer a glimpse into future earnings. "The stock market is forward looking. That is, stock prices are established on the expectations that prospective investors have for the future earnings power of the firm," states an article from the American Association of Individual Investors, a nonprofit organization that seeks to educate individual investors (tinyurl.com/vcjwh5z3).

The analysts' research "often involves modeling out forecasts for how a given company might perform in the future," explained Yahoo Finance's Brian Cheung (tinyurl.com/2yj6ahyu). "Using their own math, analysts will publish estimates for figures like revenue and [earnings per share]."

Those estimates are then collected and published as 'consensus' estimates by aggregators (Bloomberg, FactSet, S&P Capital IQ and Refinitiv). When a reporter talks about beating or missing expectations, that's the source of their information.

"Earnings estimates embody investors' opinions of factors such as sales growth, product demand, competitive industry environment, profit margins and cost controls," explained the AAII staff in "Earnings Estimates and Their Impact on Stock Prices". "Stock prices adjust as these expectations change or are proven wrong."

The AAII offered some main points to keep in mind when considering earnings estimates:

-- "Firms with high expected earnings growth tend to underperform the market because it is difficult to meet the market's high expectations. Companies with low earnings expectations tend to do better than expected."

-- "Realize that the stock price already reflects the general consensus about future earnings. Be aware that if a stock is highly touted, the basis for the recommendation should be an earnings forecast significantly above the prevailing opinion."

It turns out that the majority of S&P 500 companies do beat estimates. Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, wrote in 2023 that about 78% of companies in the S&P 500 Index had "beaten their estimates on a quarterly basis since 2020" (tinyurl.com/32nd9vk4).

Frederick added that "Company executives -- who provide the earnings guidance that analysts use to create their estimates -- are loath to disappoint investors. Just as airlines can pad flight times to avoid being considered late, company executives can issue conservative earnings guidance so it's easier to meet or beat analysts' expectations."

How else can analysts affect prices? Take this Wall Street Journal story from May 8, 2024, titled "Heard on the Street: Why Lyft's Stock is Pulling Ahead of Uber's" (tinyurl.com/45amkynh).

Reporter Dan Gallagher pointed out that "Lyft has buy ratings from only 21% of the analysts covering the shares ... a sharp contrast to the 90% of analysts who rate arch-rival Uber as a buy, according to FactSet data."

However, Gallagher wrote, "low expectations can also be a blessing. Lyft's stock jumped 7% Wednesday following its results, which showed gross bookings for the first quarter of about $3.7 billion, 3% ahead of analysts' estimates." As for Uber, the first-quarter results "showed gross bookings of $37.65 billion, which was about 1% below Wall Street's target." Gallagher went on to note that "Uber's stock slipped nearly 6% on Wednesday."

As you might expect, consensus estimates are not an exact science. Plus, consensus "may not capture what the best analysts think about a company's prospects. A few analysts tend to make remarkably accurate earnings forecasts, while others can miss them by a mile," quoting Ben McClure of Investopedia.

McClure goes a step further by telling investors to search for analysts with the best track records for accurate forecasts (tinyurl.com/48j93umj).

Expectations do play a role in stock prices when earnings are released. But, in the end, it's buyers and sellers that actually set prices through millions of buy and sell orders.

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If you have a Social Security number, you also have something else: the possibility of someone trying to scam you. The methods being used by scammers are getting more and more bold, and if victims follow instructions, they are in danger of a face-to-face meeting with the scammer.

There have been "alarming reports that criminals are impersonating SSA OIG agents and are requesting that their targets meet them in person to hand off cash," according to the Social Security Administration's Office of Inspector General (OIG) (tinyurl.com/26kjsaf5).

Clearly, this method "introduces an element of physical danger to scams that never existed before," according to the OIG.

The scammer can start with a call that looks like it's official. That is, your phone's caller ID actually identifies the caller as "the Social Security Administration" (tinyurl.com/26uwejj5). The caller may even pose as a real Social Security Administration (SSA) employee by looking up an employee's name online.

According to a Federal Trade Commission Consumer Alert, "The caller says he's a Social Security Administration agent with an urgent warning: Your name and Social Security number are linked to serious crimes like money laundering and drug trafficking.

"You're panicked when he says there's an arrest warrant for you and the courts want to seize the money from your bank and retirement accounts. The only way to protect it, he claims, is to buy gold. The agent says he'll send someone to pick it up and will keep it safe until he can clear your name of any wrongdoing."

This is clearly an intimidating message that can cause someone to act if they are unprepared. It is essential to know that in the real world, "SSA OIG agents will never pick up money at your door or in any type of exchange. This is a SCAM!"

This type of scenario emphasizes the importance of knowing the methods the SSA will use to contact you.

According to the SSA (tinyurl.com/y2rkj47s), in general, it will call you if:

-- You have recently applied for a Social Security benefit.

-- You are currently receiving payments and need to update your record.

-- You have specifically requested a phone call from the SSA.

However, SSA will not do the following:

-- Threaten you with arrest or legal action.

-- Suspend your Social Security number.

-- Ask for personal details or banking information to give you a cost-of-living adjustment.

Further, the SSA will not demand an immediate payment from you, or require a payment be made "by cash, gift card, pre-paid debit card, internet currency, or wire transfer."

The OIG's Quarterly Scam Update to Congress in April 2024 reported that there was a 22.1% increase in scam allegations the OIG received in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024 (a total of 17,032), compared with the first quarter of fiscal year 2023 (tinyurl.com/4fxrnhve). While there was an increase, it was still well below the peak of 225,364 allegations during the first quarter of fiscal year 2021.

How do you avoid a Social Security scam?

The SSA offers tips at tinyurl.com/5d5abhuf:

-- Remain calm if you "receive a communication that causes a strong emotional response" and be sure to talk to someone you trust.

-- Hang up or ignore the message, including emails or texts that contain links or attachments.

-- Protect your money and your personal information.

If you realize you are being scammed, stop engaging; call the police to report what's happening. Take steps to assure that your financial accounts are safeguarded (contact your financial institutions to find out their procedures).

Then, report the scam to the SSA's Office of Inspector General: tinyurl.com/3w7h4bsa. If the contact was online, report the scam to the FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center: tinyurl.com/3ta7mseb. For fraud, reach out to the Federal Trade Commission: tinyurl.com/4crphynd.

To keep up to date on possible Social Security scams, visit the Office of Inspector General's Scam Alerts website page at tinyurl.com/ytcntxw2.

The key to derailing a scammer is being prepared. Knowing what scams are out there is an important part of avoiding a financial loss.

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